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发表于 2020-3-22 09:39:11
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So you can actually work backwards, and say that seven days ago, for example, when their symptoms first became apparent, this person was actually infected. So that's how you can estimate though, there were around 2500 carriers of the virus when Wuhan was shut down.
戴博士说，从这张图表我们可以看出，封城还是十分有效果的。
“尽管这一做法在西方遭致许多人的批评，如今其它国家比如意大利，也正在采取类似的封城措施，因为他们意识到这种做法是有效的。”
And although it was criticized by many people in the West, other countries, Italy for example, and others are now introducing similar measures because they have seen that it does work.
普通人应该从疫情中学到什么？
戴博士认为在这个时代，每个人其实都需要培养科学严谨的思维。
“从小就树立起科学严谨思考的意识”很有必要，戴博士举了一个例子，“意大利患病者的死亡率远远高于韩国，有些人看到这个就会想当然地认为，这说明韩国的医疗系统远优于意大利。”
但事实并非这么简单。
“我们都知道病死率会随着年龄的增长，而迅速升高，在意大利，老年人占了很大的比重，而韩国的年轻人占比更大。”
So it's known that the number of fatalities increases rapidly with the age of the patients. In Italy, the population distribution is heavily skewed toward the elderly. South Korea is a much younger society.
“而且，韩国对很多国民都进行了检测，即使是轻症患者也都做了检测，如此一来，病患基数就很大，用死亡人数去除以一个很大的病患数时，得出来的死亡率就会更低。”
Also, South Korea is doing a huge number of tests, even on patients with very mild symptoms. In that case, you discover a large number of carriers of the virus. So you're dividing your number of death by a very large number, and come up with a low death rate.
不论是外国人还是中国人，在这个时代，每个人其实都需要培养科学严谨的思维。
互联网和社交媒体上谣言遍布，如今面临疫情更是如此。
在国外有人造谣新冠病毒是被实验室故意泄露，国内相信喝板蓝根、双黄连等就能治好病毒。戴博士认为，轻信这些谣言只会让人更加焦虑，降低免疫力。
他希望，能培养更多人用科学的态度看问题。这样很多谣言自然会被扼杀在民众理性的判断里。 |
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发表于 2020-3-22 09:33:37
